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What the unhappy paths cost
Same catalogue, translated into a funnel. Flip Problem/Solution above and watch the numbers move. v1 covers the onboarding line only: the operation loop needs a per-cycle model (v2).
All probabilities are illustrative presets derived from likelihood buckets (common 15% · occasional 5% · rare 1%; recovery 5% without vs 90% with architecture; 60% of dead ends file a ticket): not real statistics. Replace with your telemetry.
The prototype works when everything goes right. The product succeeds when it handles what goes wrong.